SCMP: The agenda at the United Nations’ Cop29 climate summit has become more complicated with the re-election of Donald Trump, who made “Drill, baby, drill” an applause line on the campaign trail.
The summit, which kicked off in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Monday, marks the first time in 15 years that global representatives will negotiate a new global climate finance target – detailing the support wealthy nations will provide to countries that need help to achieve their climate goals.

It also marks the deadline for countries that signed the Paris Agreement to submit stronger nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to showcase their climate commitments before Cop30 next year.

Trump has called climate change a hoax and said in 2017 that he was withdrawing the US from the 2015 Paris Agreement. Analysts are concerned he will withdraw again, and possibly even abandon the underlying UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which the US joined in 1992.
Trump has said he plans to increase oil and gas production and overturn current president Joe Biden’s policies that boost electric vehicles (EVs).
As US participation falters, all eyes are on China, the world’s second-largest economy and biggest greenhouse-gas emitter.

“If the US abandons the global climate agenda, China is in a comfortable position to portray itself as the more responsible global power without any new commitments,” said Belinda Schäpe, a China policy analyst with the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). “But that doesn’t make the climate problem go away.”

Since Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2020 commitment to national targets that call for peak carbon emissions by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2060, the country has moved at record speed on decarbonisation, including launching the world’s largest carbon trading market and deploying renewable energy on a massive scale.
Xi is sending Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang to Baku this week for the World Leaders Climate Action Summit, which starts on Tuesday. And the Foreign Ministry on Friday expressed China’s commitment to the UNFCCC, the Paris Agreement and the finance-goal process.

With the decline in global emissions expected to slow under Trump, China’s updated NDCs must aim to reduce emissions by another 30 per cent by 2035, compared with 2023, to stay in line with the Paris Agreement, according to Schäpe.

Trump’s stance may damage confidence in climate action, said Camilla Born, an independent climate adviser who represented the UK at Cop26. She expects to see “wobbles” from countries that have been “on the fence” about their commitments.

Without US leadership, other countries may not come forward with needed support, said Mohamed Adow, founding director of Power Shift Africa (PSA), a Kenya-based think tank.

“But I must say that even with a Democrat in the White House, we haven’t seen the US stepping forward and providing much solidarity, particularly for the climate-vulnerable countries, by way of climate finance,” he said during a webinar on Friday. “The challenge now is for the rest of the world – whether they can actually step forward and provide the much-needed confidence that the rest of the developing countries are looking for.”

China’s clean energy industries – which dominate the markets for solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and EVs – lead the booming green economy worldwide, which is the biggest driver of global climate action, said Li Shuo, director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

“That will not be changed by the US election outcome,” Li said. “So I would expect China to progress further on the green economy track. It will play in the near future an even larger role when it comes to helping other countries decarbonise.”

A US withdrawal could also open a window of opportunity for renewed engagement between the EU and China.

“With US-China national-level climate cooperation likely ceasing, there is an opportunity for EU-China climate engagement to fill this vacuum to keep up the momentum of global climate action,” Schäpe said.

Given increasingly tense relations between the EU and China amid recent trade disputes, this may also be in China’s interest, she said.
Countries like Brazil and United Arab Emirates will also have an opportunity to diversify from fossil fuels and shape the climate discussion.

“All countries will need to contribute to this global agenda, which is not simply a competition, but an opportunity to cooperate,” said Lionel Mok, sustainable finance programme lead of Hong Kong-based public policy think tank Civic Exchange.

“Ultimately, no one can run from the climate crisis, not even Donald Trump,” said the PSA’s Adow.

Originally published on SCMP on 12 November 2024.